Friday, December 10, 2010

Re: Economist - Cheerier Growth for 2011

So the Economist puts out a poll of estimates for growth, current account deficits, and inflation next year on a monthly basis.



In case this seems like mumbo-jumbo to yoy, here's the main points.

> all the numbers are positive. Dispite the gloomy scepticism of all the media and commentators is this. At the end of the day, almost every country (a few outliers like Ireland and Spain) has positive numbers under "Real GDP, Percent Change" for 2010 and 2011. That means that their economies have grown both this year and the last year.

> There is concern about Canada's larger-than-expected current account deficit. This (a) shouldn't be surprising considering that the US dollar has been persistently low relative to the Canadian dollar, and (b) shouldn't be too alarming, especially with the relative increase in stability in the US financial market. They got hit hard and are putting in regulations pretty quickly. All that to say, CA deficit, IN THE SHORT RUN, is largely problematic because it represents vulnerability. Our deficit comes from US imports being cheaper and their economy is settling and not too likely to fluctuate rapidly anytime soon. Long run effects may be a problem but I don't think this is the time for CA deficits to be at the forefront of economic policy.